{"id":6427,"date":"2024-05-23T20:04:14","date_gmt":"2024-05-23T18:04:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/?p=6427"},"modified":"2024-05-23T20:04:17","modified_gmt":"2024-05-23T18:04:17","slug":"trvala-zmena-urovne-prirozene-urokove-miry-debata-pokracuje","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/trvala-zmena-urovne-prirozene-urokove-miry-debata-pokracuje\/","title":{"rendered":"Trval\u00e1 zm\u011bna \u00farovn\u011b p\u0159irozen\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry: Debata pokra\u010duje"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Ekonomov\u00e9 po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b i v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice vedou intenzivn\u00ed debatu o tom, zda se \u00farove\u0148 p\u0159irozen\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry dlouhodob\u011b zvy\u0161uje. Tento koncept, kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00fd pro aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed politiku, z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 obt\u00ed\u017en\u011b m\u011b\u0159iteln\u00fdm a p\u0159edpov\u011bditeln\u00fdm parametrem. Diskuse o mo\u017en\u00e9m r\u016fstu nab\u00edr\u00e1 na d\u016fle\u017eitosti zejm\u00e9na v kontextu rekordn\u00edho zadlu\u017een\u00ed Spojen\u00fdch st\u00e1t\u016f a dal\u0161\u00edch glob\u00e1ln\u00edch ekonomick\u00fdch trend\u016f.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rekordn\u00ed zadlu\u017een\u00ed USA a jeho d\u016fsledky<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Spojen\u00e9 st\u00e1ty \u010del\u00ed bezprecedentn\u00edmu n\u00e1r\u016fstu ve\u0159ejn\u00e9ho dluhu, <strong>kter\u00fd nyn\u00ed dosahuje kolem 125 % HDP<\/strong>, co\u017e je v\u00fdrazn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst oproti p\u0159edpoklad\u016fm z roku 2007, kdy se o\u010dek\u00e1valo, \u017ee dluh bude klesat na zhruba 25 % HDP. Tento dramatick\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst zadlu\u017een\u00ed zvy\u0161uje obavy, \u017ee vysok\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby budou trvalej\u0161\u00ed, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit i glob\u00e1ln\u00ed ekonomiku v\u010detn\u011b \u010ceska. Podle Mezin\u00e1rodn\u00edho m\u011bnov\u00e9ho fondu (MMF) m\u016f\u017ee vysok\u00fd dluh USA v\u00e9st ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb celosv\u011btov\u011b, co\u017e se odraz\u00ed i v r\u016fstu p\u0159irozen\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Erdoganomika a neortodoxn\u00ed pohledy na inflaci<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Debatu je\u0161t\u011b v\u00edce zamot\u00e1v\u00e1 kontroverzn\u00ed teorie, \u017ee inflaci lze sn\u00ed\u017eit sn\u00ed\u017een\u00edm, nikoli zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00edm \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Tento n\u00e1zor, kter\u00fd raz\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad tureck\u00fd prezident Recep Tayyip Erdogan, za\u010d\u00edn\u00e1 z\u00edsk\u00e1vat pozornost i v USA. BlackRock, nejv\u011bt\u0161\u00ed investi\u010dn\u00ed fond na sv\u011bt\u011b, nyn\u00ed navrhuje, \u017ee inflaci by mohlo omezit sn\u00ed\u017een\u00ed z\u00e1kladn\u00ed \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Cena zlata jako indik\u00e1tor<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Proti t\u011bmto teori\u00edm hovo\u0159\u00ed sou\u010dasn\u00fd v\u00fdvoj ceny zlata, kter\u00e9 dos\u00e1hlo <strong>historick\u00e9ho rekordu 2450 dolar\u016f za troyskou unci<\/strong>. Zlato, kter\u00e9 nenese \u017e\u00e1dn\u00fd \u00farok, obvykle prosperuje v prost\u0159ed\u00ed n\u00edzk\u00fdch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Jeho rostouc\u00ed cena m\u016f\u017ee signalizovat o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed, \u017ee \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby neporostou a p\u0159irozen\u00e1 \u00farokov\u00e1 m\u00edra se nebude v\u00fdrazn\u011b zvy\u0161ovat. Nicm\u00e9n\u011b, popt\u00e1vka po zlat\u011b je tak\u00e9 poh\u00e1n\u011bna geopolitick\u00fdm nap\u011bt\u00edm a snahou n\u011bkter\u00fdch zem\u00ed omezit svou z\u00e1vislost na dolaru, co\u017e m\u016f\u017ee zvy\u0161ovat jeho cenu bez ohledu na \u00farokov\u00e9 sazby.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Pohled \u010cesk\u00e9 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banky<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>\u010cesk\u00e1 n\u00e1rodn\u00ed banka (\u010cNB) prozat\u00edm <strong>nezjistila v\u00fdrazn\u00fd n\u00e1r\u016fst p\u0159irozen\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry<\/strong> ve srovn\u00e1n\u00ed s obdob\u00edm p\u0159ed pandemi\u00ed a v\u00e1lkou na Ukrajin\u011b. Jedna z metod odhadu dokonce nazna\u010duje jej\u00ed m\u00edrn\u00fd pokles oproti p\u0159edchoz\u00edm let\u016fm. Ostatn\u00ed metody sice ukazuj\u00ed na r\u016fst, ale st\u00e1le v r\u00e1mci p\u00e1sma bl\u00edzk\u00e9ho jednomu procentu, co\u017e je \u00farove\u0148, se kterou \u010cNB dlouhodob\u011b pracuje ve sv\u00fdch progn\u00f3z\u00e1ch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Geopolitick\u00e9 faktory a budouc\u00ed v\u00fdvoj<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Geopolitick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed, zejm\u00e9na v\u00e1lka na Ukrajin\u011b, a snaha n\u011bkter\u00fdch zem\u00ed jako \u010c\u00edna, Turecko, Indie a Kazachst\u00e1n, omezit svou z\u00e1vislost na dolaru, vedou k masivn\u00edm n\u00e1kup\u016fm <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/shop\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/shop\/\">fyzick\u00e9ho zlata<\/a><\/strong>. Tento faktor m\u016f\u017ee ovlivnit <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/shop\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/shop\/\">cenu zlata<\/a><\/strong> bez ohledu na v\u00fdvoj \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb. Investo\u0159i mohou vn\u00edmat geopolitick\u00e1 rizika natolik v\u00e1\u017en\u011b, \u017ee pokra\u010duj\u00ed v <a href=\"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/shop\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/shop\/\"><strong>investic\u00edch do zlata<\/strong><\/a> i p\u0159es o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed vy\u0161\u0161\u00edch \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h4 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Z\u00e1v\u011br<\/h4>\n\n\n\n<p>Debata o trval\u00e9 zm\u011bn\u011b \u00farovn\u011b p\u0159irozen\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 otev\u0159en\u00e1. Zat\u00edmco geopolitick\u00e9 nap\u011bt\u00ed a rekordn\u00ed zadlu\u017een\u00ed USA nazna\u010duj\u00ed jej\u00ed mo\u017en\u00e9 zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00ed, aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed v\u00fdvoj ceny zlata a n\u011bkter\u00e9 odhady \u010cNB tento r\u016fst zat\u00edm nepotvrzuj\u00ed. Jist\u00e9 je, \u017ee prom\u011bnliv\u00e9 ekonomick\u00e9 a politick\u00e9 faktory budou i nad\u00e1le hr\u00e1t kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli v ur\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed budouc\u00edho v\u00fdvoje \u00farokov\u00fdch sazeb a p\u0159irozen\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9 m\u00edry.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Ekonomov\u00e9 po cel\u00e9m sv\u011bt\u011b i v \u010cesk\u00e9 republice vedou intenzivn\u00ed debatu o tom, zda se \u00farove\u0148 p\u0159irozen\u00e9 \u00farokov\u00e9&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":6428,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"image","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[16,21],"tags":[270,32,272],"class_list":["post-6427","post","type-post","status-publish","format-image","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-inspirace","category-trends","tag-inspirace","tag-trends","tag-trendy","post_format-post-format-image"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6427","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6427"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6427\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6428"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6427"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6427"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/zlataroudna.cz\/silver\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6427"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}